Disclaimer

Not investment advice

GXPOL provides quantitative market analysis. It is not investment advice, not a personal recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation to deal in any instrument. Our outputs do not take account of your objectives, financial situation, constraints or risk tolerance. You are solely responsible for your decisions and should seek independent advice from an appropriately authorised person where appropriate.

Not regulated advice

GXPOL is not authorised to conduct regulated investment business and does not manage client assets. Where a mandate requires regulated activity, that activity is carried out by our clients' own regulated entities, not by us.

Models are probabilistic

Every output is a model estimate carrying uncertainty. Regime scores, forecasts and analogues describe conditions and historical tendencies — they do not predict outcomes. Prediction intervals shown in the product are part of the answer, not decoration.

Past behaviour is not a guarantee

Historical analogues and track records describe what has happened under similar conditions. Markets are not obliged to repeat. A regime that resembles a previous one may resolve entirely differently.

Data limitations

Our analysis depends on third-party data which may be delayed, revised, withdrawn or wrong. Where we detect that an input has degraded, the product discloses it — but detection is not guaranteed. Coverage quality varies by country and we say so where it does.

Methodology changes

Our methodology is versioned and evolves as evidence accumulates. When it changes, historical scores may be restated under the new version. The change, its rationale and its measured effect are recorded — but a score you saw previously may not be identical to the score you see now under a later methodology version.

If any of this is unclear, ask us before relying on the analysis: hello@gxpol.com.